When two teams hate each other, as the Clippers and Warriors do, it makes for entertaining basketball, especially when there is something on the line. Fans and some analysts have been calling this the best rivalry in basketball right now, while experts claim that in order for it to be a rivalry they have to meet when it matters the most, the playoffs.
Unfortunately for the Warriors the Clippers have everything in their favor going into this series.
1) No Bogut
With a fractured rib and no possibility to return this series, unless he wants to run the risk of puncturing a lung, the defense of the Warriors falls off dramatically. He is the only player on Golden State that can defend and slow the hyper-athletic duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.
Bogut was second in defensive-rating this season, only behind Joakim Noah, and when on the floor the Warriors allowed two fewer points per possession than when on the bench.
He is also their rim protector and when on the floor teams take and make less shots in the restricted area and are less effective on the boards. That means less putbacks by the opposing frontcourt and less easy drives to the basket for the wings.
Bogut is the defensive anchor, however, his presence will be missed on offense. Their offensive efficiency rises from 103.3 to 107.8 when he is on the bench as compared to when he is on the floor. The Warriors assists also increase by 2.3 to 18.8, or third in the league, when he is on the floor.
It is clear that the Warriors will miss the Australian native on both sides of the ball, especially with no viable backup to fill his shoes.
2) Clippers ability to play Big or Small Ball
Without Bogut the Warriors will likely turn to playing small ball and try to outrun the frontcourt of the Clippers. This would probably work against most other teams in the league, but not against the likes of Griffin and Jordan.
When analysts and experts marvel at these two big men it is justifiable so. They are oozing athletic ability and along with their size will be able to take advantage of a smaller lineup.
If the Warriors are getting beat up on the boards they can go big with Jermaine O’Neal or Marreese Speights, but with that lies the problem of offensive output and athletic ability. Again Griffin and Jordan have too much talent to be stopped by these two big men for the Warriors. Although rebounding will be more difficult for the frontcourt of the Clippers, they will easily out-jump, out-run, and out-shoot their less athletic counterparts.
Also, the Clippers have too many weapons on the perimeter for the Warriors to play big. With a laundry list of players that are capable of hitting threes – Paul, JJ Redick, Jamal Crawford, Danny Granger, Jared Dudley, and Matt Barnes – the Warriors will have to be concerned if Speights, O’Neal, or David Lee end up on them in a switch situation.
So by going big to prevent Griffin and Jordan having a field day on the glass the Warriors will sacrifice offensive scoring and perimeter defense. If they go small they will have to give up easy putbacks and run the risk of getting key players into foul trouble trying to defend the Clippers towering frontcourt.
3) Depth
The Clippers are finally healthy and have a deep roster. They have Darren Collison that proved to be a more than viable backup for Paul, while he was out with a separated shoulder. What he lacks in size he more than makes up for in speed and quickness and get in the lane, take the mid-range jumper, or shoot from beyond the arc. The Clips also have sixth-man of the year candidate Jamal Crawford, who averaged 18.6 points per game and finished fourth in fourth quarter scoring in the regular season, behind only Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Steph Curry.
Not to mention the Clippers still have Danny Granger and Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis to round out their frontcourt depth. With Granger he is still capable of hitting the open three and create his own shot. While Davis is capable of hitting the mid-range jumper and an above average free-throw shooter.
The Warriors bench has been up and down all season with more lows than highs, however. Harrison Barnes has been a disappointment in his sophomore campaign, with a regression in his game. Steve Blake is a serviceable backup point guard, but by no means can run the offense if Curry went down.
Jordan Crawford does bring energy off the bench and provides the offensive spark for the second unit. Speights and Green bring a nastiness off the bench, but in the four games against the Clippers their numbers dip well below their season averages.
It has been clear all season that if the Warriors want to win they cannot rely on their bench to win games.
4) Home Court Advantage
The teams split the regular season series at two apiece, both defending their home court. Three out of the games the home team won by double-digits.
The Clippers, however, have been more dominant at home, with a record of 34-7 at home compared to the Warriors 24-17. On the road the Warriors ended a game ahead of the Clippers with a record of 24-17.
Even head-to-head the Clippers have been more dominant at home as well. The one game that was not decided by double-digits was on Christmas Day in Oakland, while the other meeting in Oracle had the absence of the Clippers All-Star point guard from the lineup. Which, if objective no one can believe the Clippers would get throughly out played if they had their floor general.
In the two games at Staples this season the Warriors have averaged 18 turnovers per game and have been out-rebounded by an average of 12 a game. They have also have averaged eight fewer free throw attempts.
With the home court advantage the Clippers are primed to win this series. That does not mean that the Warriors will just hand it over to the Clips. They still hate each and rivals on top of that, which is why I believe the Warriors have a chance to take a game or two. The only thing worse than losing a playoff series is to lose one to a rival that you have no love for.
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